CHINA - The announcement that China will significantly increase its GDP estimate will come as welcome news to investors, said James Alexander, marketing director at Atlantis Investment Management.
“Broadly speaking that is good news for corporate earnings and therefore that should be positive longer term for the stock market as well,” said Alexander.
One of the longer term problems with China has been that strong levels of GDP had not necessarily translated into stock market performance, or earnings growth.
“That is certainly something we have seen in China in the last 18 months or so. We are starting to feel more positive about the level of growth.”
The fact that GDP figures required adjustment is hardly surprising, said Alexander.
“We have al been suspicious over the accuracy of GDP numbers for many years. Are they GDP number or are they government’s internal forecasts?
Atlantis’ office in Hong Kong has often said the numbers that were reported actually under-represent what is taking place, certainly in the major cities, he added.
“In some industrial areas, going up towards Shanghai, you are probably looking at GDP growth in the region of 12% rather than around 9.5%. So when the numbers get thrown out we would not be surprised if the numbers are higher than has been previously forecast.”
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