Mortality rates for people in the UK aged 70-90 could improve by between 10-20pc from 2020, new research shows.
Continuous Mortality Investigation Bureau secretary Tony Leandro unveiled the findings at the Association of Consulting Actuaries conference in London.
His figures are based on an as yet unexplained blip in UK mortality rates for the generation born between 1925-45.
Leandro showed that this generation had consistently higher improvements in mortality, when compared with generations on either side of it, for a period stretching back 30 years.
Leandro said such disparity was also backed up by figures seen in other European countries.
Leandro stressed that the “blip” was not fully understood and that there was no firm evidence to suggest that the trend would continue.But he said it was something that consulting actuaries should be made aware of, as the generation in question was now either already in retirement or approaching it.
The Annuity Bureau’s managing director Peter Quinton commented: “If these figures were true then, as far as annuities are concerned, people should buy them as quickly as they can, because they are going to lose their value.”
Assuming the blip does not occur, and current trends continue, mortality should only rise by up to 5pc for pensioners in 2020.
Leandro’s research also showed that while current rates of mortality improvement was greater for men, there was no large convergence in rates between the sexes.
By David Rowley
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