GLOBAL - Deutsche Bank has released its contribution to the recent tide of market outlooks for 2002 with a generally optimistic tone.
Risk assets such as credit, equity markets in general, and bonds should do well, says Deutsche. High-beta markets such as Europe and emerging should fare particularly well in the predicted economic recovery that’s set to mimic that of 1993 and early 1994.
According to Deutsche, receding recession, falling inflation, and low short-term interest rates characterise the next 11 months - close to the ideal cyclical financial asset environment in which liquidity is ample, growth is strong enough to allow for modest profit expansion, and there is enough slack in the system to allow inflation to fall an rates to stay low.
Other key points from the report are:
- the US economy should recover gradually in 2002. The rest of the world follows with a lag but global capacity utilisation will remain slack. Inflation tumbles;
- Economic momentum favours cyclical markets (emerging markets, Euroland, Japan). Equity valuations are not attractive in the US versus bonds but are generally cheap elsewhere especially versus cash;
- Japan's structural problems continue and with zero interest rates the yen is likely to be the worst performing major currency this year. The euro is expected to recover against the dollar but sterling should lag. By Madhu Kalia
The Pensions Regulator (TPR) and Labour MP Stephen Kinnock and will listen to the experiences of steelworkers when transferring their pensions away from the British Steel Pension Scheme (BSPS) next week in Port Talbot.
Just Group has acquired a 75% stake in the holding company of Corinthian Pension Consulting in a bid to strengthen its professional defined benefit (DB) advisory services.
The Pensions Regulator (TPR) has exercised its production order power under the Proceeds of Crime Act 2002 for the very first time as part of a fraud investigation.
The ITN Limited Pension Scheme has named Trafalgar House as its administrator for an initial term of five years.