Nearly two-thirds of the GP 100 Panel expect global inflation to rise over the next six months.
The findings almost exactly parallel a survey by Northern Trust released last month that shows 62% of managers believe inflation will increase in the coming months, up 40 percentage points from the third quarter survey and the highest level recorded since Northern Trust began its survey in 2008.
Inflation concerns are likely related to increased optimism regarding the economy and financial markets, said Northern Trust. Some 55% of investment managers surveyed expect global growth to accelerate over the next six months, up from 33% who held this view in the third quarter. Some 80% of respondents expect corporate earnings to rise in the next three months.
“In the fourth quarter our managers expressed optimism that global markets are on solid footing and will perhaps continue their upward trajectory,” said Chris Vella, global director of research for Northern Trust Global Advisors, the multi-manager arm of Northern Trust.
However, one respondent said they do not expect inflation to rise as economies in the US and Europe will be restrained by low interest rates.
The Global Pensions 100 Panel was launched in July 2006 and every month asks pension funds two topical questions on events in the pensions industry.
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HM Revenue and Customs (HMRC) has announced it is delaying the provision of data that will enable pension schemes to confirm the guaranteed minimum pension (GMP) benefits to pay to members until the end of the year.
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