GLOBAL - Monetary impulses are likely to lift global markets this year, although investors can still expect to fall short of a smooth ride with modest market potential forecast for the foreseeable future.
According to State Street Global Advisors, 2002 is unlikely to break from stock market history and experience a third negative year. But at best investors can anticpate an “uneasy truce” between hopes for an economy recovery and fears that the market has already risen too far.
Global stock markets have just concluded a turbulent Q4 to a very turbulent 2001, said SSgA. Paradoxically, the events of September 11 have probably meant that returns ended up higher than expected by the end of Q3. Markets began to rally strongly in late September and finished up about 20% above the post attack lows.
But according to SSgA’s projections markets were not exactly cheap to begin with and are now still overvalued relative to earnings prospects, despite looking cheap at the depth of the declines in September, especially when valued against bonds.
By Madhu Kalia
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