CMI: First death level dip below 2019 recorded
The Continuous Mortality Investigation’s (CMI) mortality monitor has recorded a lower number of week-on-week deaths comparative to 2019 for the first since the outbreak of Covid-19 in the UK.
The CMI's weekly analysis of Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures based on provisional England and Wales deaths data showed the dip occurred between 13 and 19 June - week 25 of 2020.
There were 3% fewer deaths registered in the week than if death rates had been the same as in week 25 of 2019, marking the first time since March that mortality rates have been lower than last year. This follows an excess deaths figure of 4% for weeks 24 and 23 of 2020, and one of 17% for week 22.
CMI mortality projections committee chair Cobus Daneel said: "The latest ONS data shows around 250 fewer deaths than we might expect at this time of year, the first time since March that excess deaths have turned negative."
The CMI estimates there have been 63,200 more deaths in the UK from the start of the Covid-19 pandemic than if mortality rates were similar to those experienced in 2019. The figure is down 300 from the 63,500-figure prediction last week.
The UK began its 16th week in lockdown on 28 June, with the next outlined relaxation measures for England scheduled to begin on 4 July.
The CMI has said it will now reduce the frequency of monitoring reports, provided excess deaths remain within a typical range.
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