The wait is finally over. Four‑and‑a‑half years after the Brexit referendum, the UK has exited the European Union's single market and customs union, leaving behind a political and economic arrangement that had been in place since 1973. However, while the trade deal agreed between the two sides provides clarity in some areas, a great deal of uncertainty remains about what Brexit will mean in practice.
In the 10th of a series of updates, Quentin Fitzsimmons and Tomasz Wieladek, T. Rowe Price's resident Brexit experts, provide an overview of the current state of play.
What Has Happened Since Our Last Update?
After months of demanding negotiations, on Christmas Eve, the UK and the EU finally agreed to the Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) covering their post‑Brexit trading and security relationship. It was a hard‑won achievement: Since the UK formally left the EU on January 31, 2020, talks to determine the future relationship between the two had stuttered badly against the backdrop of a global pandemic, with both sides accusing the other of recalcitrance and inflexibility. While a deal of some kind was always the most likely outcome, the potential for failure kept markets guessing right until the end. A no‑deal Brexit was always possible.
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