In his annual outlook, LGIM Real Assets' global head of investment Strategy & Research Rob Martin considers long-term performance as the combination of structural tailwinds and cyclical opportunities.
Looking to 2024 where could investors find returns in the short to medium-term?
- If a recession does take hold, we would expect relatively stronger prospects for less cyclical, needs-based assets and businesses.
- Capital structures created in a different rate environment may be challenged by refinancing schedules, particularly in commercial real estate. We believe this will create opportunities for long-term investors with flexible capital.
- In our view, the investment grade and resilient BB private credit spaces are likely to become more attractive, given their returns tend to be driven by rates more than credit risk.
The outlook also identifies the megatrends that lie behind these short-term opportunities.
Key risks: the value of an investment and any income taken from it is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up, you may not get back the amount you originally invested. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.