CMI monitor shows decline in excess weekly deaths; plateau anticipated for May
The total number of deaths registered last week in England and Wales dropped significantly from the week before but was 1.6 times as many registered at the same time in 2019.
The latest update from the Continuous Mortality Investigation's (CMI) weekly Covid-19 mortality monitor showed week 18 of 2020 (25 April to 1 May) as having the lowest registered deaths in more than a month.
The figures gathered by the CMI from Office for National Statistics data were 2.2 in week 17, 2.4 in week 16, and 1.8 in week 15.
CMI mortality projections committee Cobus Daneel said that while the decline trend is evident, it is likely that the fall in excess deaths "will be more gradual over the coming weeks".
The monitor also shows there may now have been around 60,000 more deaths in the UK from the start of the pandemic to 11 May than if mortality rates were similar to those experiences in 2019.
Club Vita head of innovation Steven Baxter said: "There are a significant number of death certificates which note Covid-19 as contributory cause of death, however, since early April we have also seen unseasonably high levels of deaths which make no mention of Covid-19; around 3,000 higher each week than usual for this time of year.
"Putting all this together means that the combined direct and indirect loss of life from Covid-19 may now be 60,000; double the official number."
The CMI's latest weekly update comes alongside the government's announcement of a three-month extension to the furlough scheme yesterday (12 May), and the introduction of a three-phase strategy for gradually lifting the current lockdown restrictions in England on Sunday (10 May).
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