The number of deaths registered in the UK in the week ending Friday 10 April (week 15) was 77% higher than expected if using the same standardised mortality rates as 2019, says the Continuous Mortality Investigation (CMI).
The Institute and Faculty of Actuaries (IFoA) body said the cumulative mortality improvement for 2020 was now -2.7% as of that date, compared with 0.1% as at 20 March 2020, before the Covid-19 outbreak had had a material impact.
The CMI said more recent data from Public Health England (PHE) suggested that the cumulative improvement would fall further.
The week prior had seen a 59% increase in deaths compared to the same period last year, with a cumulative mortality improvement rate of -1.2%. The change from -1.2% to -2.7% was the largest change in weekly deaths data the CMI has seen since 1999.
The CMI said expected deaths were 10,440 for week 15 was 10,440 but there were "excess" deaths of 8,076 in this period. Covid-19 was mentioned on the death certificates of 6,213 cases, resulting in a 30% excess death rate not attributed to the disease.
Deaths were 88% higher for men and 66% higher for women, the CMI said, and death rates were more than double than expected for men aged over 75. For women, they were 70% higher.
Compared to PHE data for across the coronavirus outbreak, the CMI estimated a total of between 26,654 and 31,419 excess deaths so far.
CMI mortality projections committee chairman Cobus Daneel said: "Our analysis looks at the increase in deaths from 2019 to 2020 as a way to measure the effect of the coronavirus pandemic.
"The increase in deaths is much higher than what is shown by the commonly-quoted figures for deaths in hospitals. This shows not just the terrible impact of the pandemic in overall terms, but also the large number of deaths occurring outside hospitals - for instance, in care homes."
It is not clear how this data will yet feed into pension scheme mortality assumptions.
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